It is no surprise that a government that claims to be committed to making economic growth a priority would give the green light to the expansion of Gatwick Airport and Luton Airport.
It also wouldn’t be a surprise if a third track in Heathrow Airport receive the approval of the lord Keir Starmergovernment of -particularly because Rachel ReevesThe chancellor told London Night Normal in July last year that she had “nothing against expanding airport capacity… I want Heathrow to be that European hub for travel”.
In purely economic terms, expanding the airport is a no-brainer.
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The economic case
The independent commission headed by Sir Howard Davies, former president of NatWestand published in July 2015, concluded that “expanding airport capacity is essential for the long-term prosperity of the United Kingdom.”
LondonAccording to a report prepared for the airport by the independent economic consultancy Oxera, it generated £5.5 billion for the economy in 2023 and created more than 76,000 jobs.
The airport’s owner estimates that expanding it to take annual capacity to 75 million by the mid-2030s, up from £46.5 million in 2019, would create around 14,000 jobs and generate $1 billion. extra pounds a year in financial benefits.
Those numbers are difficult to verify, but it’s safe to say that anything that provides access to new markets for both consumers and businesses will be positive for growth.
Expanding the smallest London The airport would also be positive for growth.
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In 2019 the airport (these pre-pandemic figures are probably the most reliable given the upheaval of recent years) is estimated to have generated 16,500 jobs in the local area and contributed £1.1bn to GDP. According to estimates, the airport expansion will create up to 6,100 jobs and contribute an additional £900 million to GDP.
Above both, of course, is Heathrow.
The Davies Commission said building a third runway to the north-west of the airport would enable around 40 new destinations from Heathrow and create more than 70,000 new jobs by 2050, adding around £147bn to GDP.
He stated: “Heathrow is best placed to provide the type of capacity that is most urgently required – long-haul destinations to new markets. “It provides the greatest benefits for business passengers, cargo operators and the economy as a whole.”
It is worth noting that among the members of the commission was Sir John Armitt, the respected former chairman of the Olympic Supply Authority, who is now chairman of the National Infrastructure Commission.
Her mandate was extended by Ms Reeves in October last year so she could oversee the chancellor’s 10-year strategy and the establishment of the National Infrastructure and Services Transformation Authority.
He will be an influential voice in this debate.
However, while the economic arguments in favor of expanding the airport are irrefutable, the most important question, perhaps, is whether it is feasible.
Political considerations
Gaining approval for the Luton and Gatwick expansion will be an important test of the new government’s commitment to review of planning rules where they are an impediment to growth.
And here there are, for supporters of expansion, ominous signs.
The decision on whether or not to extend Luton was postponed for the third time just before Christmas, so Heidi Alexander, who had just made it the disgraced Louise Haigh as Transport Secretary could be given time to assess the application.
Climate concerns
Linked to planning obstacles are the inevitable environmental objections.
The Climate Change Committee, the government’s independent advisory body, has already said emissions savings would have to be made in other sectors of the economy if there were a major expansion in passenger numbers at airports.
No doubt the aviation industry will argue that it has already committed to becoming net zero emissions by mid-century, but the environmental lobby has a long history of successful campaigns against airport expansion.
Added to this are political obstacles.
Ms Reeves – and Ms Alexander, should she back the expansion of Gatwick and Luton – will face relentless opposition within her own cabinet, not least from Ed Miliband, the energy and climate change secretary.
Backing Heathrow expansion would be even more controversial.
Sadiq Khanthe mayor of London, is firmly opposed to this, as are other senior Labor figures, including Andy Burnhamthe mayor of Greater Manchester.
He argues that a third runway at Heathrow would go against the leveling proposals, although it is worth noting here that some of the UK’s largest regional airports, such as Newcastle, support a third runway because it would boost international connectivity to their region.
That means leadership will ultimately have to come from Sir Keir Starmer who, it should be noted, voted against a third runway at Heathrow in 2018.
It is unlikely that the government will ever obtain credit
Supporting airport expansion is often difficult for governments – environmental objections and inevitable planning hurdles aside – because it takes a long time to add capacity and ministers are therefore unlikely to receive credit for it in their lifetime. policy.
For example, the two major airport expansion projects currently underway in Europe, the new Luis de Camoes airport in Lisbon and the new Solidaridad supercenter in Warsaw, are unlikely to be completed until the mid-2030s.
But the latter, in particular, highlights how other European governments do not hesitate to see the expansion of airports as an important generator of growth.
He is not alone. Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport, an increasingly important competitor to Heathrow, is currently investing around €6 billion in improvements with the aim of expanding both the number of passengers and flights. Budapest, an airport once owned by BAA, the former parent of Heathrow and Gatwick, is looking to build a third terminal that would generate an extra three million passengers by the end of the decade.
These examples highlight how other European governments are less scrupulous about putting airport expansion ahead of environmental considerations in the name of the pursuit of economic growth.
You can be sure that the international investors who own Heathrow, Gatwick and Luton will be looking for the UK to do the same.
