Is the beginning of a ceasefire the end of a conflict? History tells only sometimes. In the Middle East, in particular, permanence is a fluid concept. Within the ceasefire in Gaza – which came into effect overnight – there are obstacles to a true end to the violence. The foundations of peace are based on reconciling seemingly irreconcilable interests and building strength from that fragility.
Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya said he viewed the deal as a defeat for Israel. Israel, however, can argue that it has been successful. In the 15 months since Hamas massacred more than 1,200 people in southern Israel and took more than 250 people hostage, Israel has killed Hamas fighters and leaders, including its head in Gaza. It has inflicted damage on a large part of Hezbollah in Lebanon and weakened Iran’s position.
But in doing so, it has also killed more than 46,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials. Most of them were civilians, more than 13,000 were children. Gaza’s infrastructure is destroyed. Almost 2 million people have been displaced. The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for alleged war crimes.
Still, the first part of the three-phase ceasefire has begun. It is scheduled to last six weeks. The missiles will stop, the death and destruction will stop, hope will seep into the air. Israel will withdraw its forces from populated areas of Gaza. Hamas will begin releasing Israeli hostages.
The first 33 will include women, the elderly and the injured; three during the night, four on the seventh day and then three every seven days, and the last 14 in the last week of phase one. For every hostage returned, Israel will release between 30 and 50 Palestinian prisoners.
After 15 months of immense misery, suffering and loss, there is no denying that this ceasefire is a ray of light that will hopefully prevail where other attempts have not. The issues that arise when trying to establish peace in the region after the ceasefire are another matter. Everything scales back to this, and then what happens?
Charging
First, international aid must begin to reach Gaza at pre-conflict levels. Normalizing life, to the extent possible, also requires some stable form of government. Israel is strident in declaring that Hamas should not participate in the governance of the Gaza Strip, a view that Herald actions.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken summed up the intractability of the situation by saying that, as a consequence of the war, “Hamas had been able to recruit almost as many new militants as it had lost, a recipe for a long-lasting insurgency and war.” life”. .
In a national address 12 hours before the ceasefire began, Netanyahu said his country was treating the ceasefire as temporary and retained the right to continue fighting if necessary. He said he had the support of US President-elect Donald Trump, who told Netanyahu to “keep doing what you have to do.” Hamas will almost certainly be of the same opinion.
