OTTAWA – The round-robin portion of WJC 2025 will conclude on New Year’s Eve with a big clash between Team Canada and Team USA.
The outcome of the game will have important consequences. If the match is won in regulation time, the winning team will take first place in Group A.
A team that loses in regulation time could finish as third seed in Group A and be forced to play the Czech Republic or Sweden in the quarterfinals, assuming Finland beats Germany in its final round-robin match and finishes no worse. what second in the group.
I’m not even going to try to go into extended scenarios that could exist with overtime or wins and losses on penalties.
I find it difficult to describe the style of play that this version of Team Canada is trying to implement. The group has perplexed me so far in the tournament.
They haven’t played with much physicality. So far, it is not a team that consistently attacks with speed outside of the attack. They haven’t had many great scoring opportunities.
One takeaway from the game against Germany is that the power play appears to be more synchronized than in Canada’s first two games. The coaching staff seems, with a few exceptions, comfortable distributing ice time fairly evenly across the entire lineup rather than giving more minutes to some of the highest-producing forwards in the entire CHL.
Outside of Canada’s elite goaltending, I’m not sure what to expect in this game. But there’s no doubt that Canada has to be better than it was against Latvia and Germany to beat a very good American team.
• Surprisingly, like Team Canada, the American power play has not been as dominant as expected. Both teams have only managed to score twice with the man advantage. Canada is 2-for-13 on the power play, while the Americans are 2-for-11. Winning the special teams battle will be essential on Tuesday and the rest of the tournament. These teams have too much talent. One of them is sure to explode and start scoring on the power play.
• Penalties have been solid for both teams. The United States has eliminated 11 of 13 penalties (85 percent), while Canada has eliminated 13 of 15 (87 percent)
• This is a game that will focus heavily on opposing goalkeepers. Trey Augustine (USA) and Carter George (Canada) are two of the best goalkeeper prospects in the world. To this point in the tournament, Augustine has been average by his American standards (3.94 goals-against average, .888 save percentage). Meanwhile, George has been easily the best goalie, not allowing a goal in two starts.
• Canada has struggled to score goals so far. They need to find a way to create more opportunities around their opponent’s net by setting screens, going for tips, and fighting for rebounds. Team USA prefers to handle the puck and make plays on the move. When they work off the cycle in the offensive zone, they are very difficult to defend.
Here’s a look at both teams’ shooting maps. Team USA has generated many more scoring opportunities than Canada. They will give the Canadian defenders everything they can handle in their zone. On the other side of the scale, Team USA will be more than happy to allow the Canadians to drive pucks into the net from long range and from the perimeter.
Team Canada has been splitting ice time pretty evenly. It’s a curious strategy, in my opinion. Gavin McKenna, for example, is the WHL’s leading scorer (19 goals, 41 assists) and averages over 22 minutes of ice time per game playing for the Medication Hat Tigers. In the game against Germany he skated only 12:07. He needs more ice time and he’s not alone.
Berkly Catton has scored 14 goals and 33 assists in 28 games for the Spokane Chiefs in the WHL. He hasn’t had any luck with the puck in the tournament so far, but he’s been active and constantly creating opportunities. He logged just under 14 minutes of ice time against Germany, compared to the 21 minutes he averaged with the Chiefs.
If Canada hopes to generate more offense, it needs to get more out of its top scorers. The strategy, until now, has been too basic and the results speak for themselves. Players like McKenna, Catton, Easton Cowan, Luca Pinelli and Calum Ritchie are used to playing a lot of minutes for their club teams. Scorers need more ice time to feel the puck, establish a flow to their game, and ultimately play to their strengths offensively.
Here’s a look at how each team has been deploying some of their best players and their offensive production after their first three games of the tournament:
Gabe Perreault 2G-2A 19:19
Cole Eiserman 1G-3A 13:08
Brodie Ziemer 3G-1A 14:55
Calum Ritchie 1G-1A 17:03
Gavin McKenna 1G-0A 14:32
Berkly Catton 0G-1A 15:16
Sam Dickinson 0G-1A 17:31
Jett Luchanko 1G-0A 12:57
• Team USA will rely heavily on its top line, which plays together in Boston Faculty. The “BC” line consists of James Hagens in the middle between wingers Gabe Perreault and Team USA captain Ryan Leonard. Hagens and Perreault are the playmakers, while Leonard does a lot of the heavy lifting in the trenches and is more of a scorer than a distributor.
• Team Canada lined up with Gavin McKenna playing alongside Luca Pinelli and Berkly Catton for the game against Germany and everything was on fire. The players complement each other. McKenna and Catton are always on the move and Pinelli reads how the game is developing before finding pucks and directing them toward the net. Pinelli is the shooter on the line.
High leverage defense
• Team USA’s Zeev Buium is the NCAA’s leading defensive scorer, but he’s been quiet offensively so far in the tournament. He is deployed in all situations and averages over 25:00 TOI. Buium’s best game is yet to come. He is a very competitive player who plays fast and has a physical edge to his approach.
• Team Canada elevated Sam Dickinson to its primary power-play unit in the game against Germany. He led the CHL in defensive scoring before the world juniors (15G-31A). Nine of his fifteen goals are power play related. He will be tasked with shutting down America’s top six forwards and adding a layer of offense for Canada. His time on ice increased to 21:48 against the Germans.
